Endless non-stop selling continues to sink financial markets lower in admist of one of the greatest bear markets in history. Since October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has sunk 54% off its highs. When will the selling stop? We take a look at each component's move to date and try to come up with a rationale level where we reverse course.
Here is a table of how each Dow component has performed since being off its highs within the last 3 years:
Symbol 3yr hi 3/6/09 Diff$ Diff% ========================================== AA $48.77 $5.20 -$43.57 -89.34% AXP $65.89 $9.98 -$55.91 -84.85% BA $107.83 $29.84 -$77.99 -72.33% BAC $55.08 $3.12 -$51.96 -94.34% C $57.00 $1.02 -$55.98 -98.21% CAT $87.00 $23.62 -$63.38 -72.85% CVX $104.63 $58.28 -$46.35 -44.30% DD $53.90 $17.16 -$36.74 -68.16% DIS $36.79 $15.92 -$20.87 -56.73% GE $42.15 $6.89 -$35.26 -83.65% HD $43.95 $18.01 -$25.94 -59.02% HPQ $53.48 $26.25 -$27.23 -50.92% IBM $130.93 $85.18 -$45.75 -34.94% INTC $27.99 $12.28 -$15.71 -56.13% JNJ $72.76 $47.78 -$24.98 -34.33% JPM $53.25 $15.50 -$37.75 -70.89% KFT $37.20 $21.59 -$15.61 -41.96% KO $65.59 $38.85 -$26.74 -40.77% MCD $67.00 $51.05 -$15.95 -23.81% MMM $97.00 $41.92 -$55.08 -56.78% MRK $61.62 $22.76 -$38.86 -63.06% MSFT $37.50 $15.24 -$22.26 -59.36% PFE $28.60 $12.55 -$16.05 -56.12% PG $75.18 $45.54 -$29.64 -39.43% T $42.97 $22.54 -$20.43 -47.54% UTX $82.50 $38.14 -$44.36 -53.77% VZ $46.24 $27.10 -$19.14 -41.39% WMT $63.85 $49.41 -$14.44 -22.62% XOM $96.12 $63.49 -$32.63 -33.95%
The average percentage decline of all 30 stocks is 55% with the most weakest stocks coming from the financial sector (AXP, BAC, C, JPM). Looking at this, it appears there's still a ways to go, perhaps to the 5800 level on a big sell off.
In a previous article Historical Statistics of the Dow Jones Industrials we can look back to September 2008 when the Dow plummeted 777 points.
We could very well be looking at a similar scenario developing over the next few weeks.
- Kerry's blog
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