Kerry Kobashi's picture

Market Rally Over?

June 11 2009 Posted by Kerry Kobashi

Stock chart

I been sitting here the past 5 days watching the action on the S&P 500 futures and can't but help feel we are approaching a top. The trading action is very choppy, abrupt and feels like it is hitting a ceiling.

Here's my reasons why I feel this way and why one should consider lightening existing long positions by 60%.

  1. The S&P 500 eMini contract ESU9 daily has nothing but long upper stemmed candlestick wicks suggesting hesitation on the bulls part
  2. The S&P 500 has jumped up over 40% since March suggesting too fast too soon
  3. Google has started to sell off from the $450 level
  4. Baidu the Chinese search engine has had a tremendous run since last Christmas 2009 and looks to have topped at $310. It is currently testing its downtrend line from November 2006.
  5. Apple has started to sell off from it's two year downtrend line and announced $99 iPhones which to me is a sign of mass adoption
  6. Too many stocks I've looked at have done some 300% of their March 2009 bottoms such as Ford, Apple, Research In Motion, Wells Fargo, Advanced Micro Devices
  7. Retail stocks look to have dead cat bounced including Walmart, Target, Home Depot
  8. Berkshire Hathaway has not rallied

If anything, I'd look for a possible spike and then June swoon sell off starting in the next few weeks downtrending over the next 3-6 months.

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About Kerry Kobashi

Kerry is the founder of KerryOnWorld. He currently lives in Silicon Valley and has worked over 15 years as an engineer and project manager. He owns Kobashi Computing, a consultant company.

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